Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
