Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.